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Qala Saints vs St. Andrews — FA Trophy 2020

Qala Saints
Qala Saintsadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
St. Andrews
St. Andrews
1/12/2025FA TrophyFA Trophy · Round of 32Gozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qala Saints19%
×Draw24%
St. Andrews57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qala Saints
0.83
St. Andrews
1.67

St. Andrews creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Qala Saints
0.67
St. Andrews
1.67

allows per match

Qala Saints
1.67
St. Andrews
1.00

finishing

Qala Saints+0.00on par
St. Andrews+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qala Saints ↓

St. Andrews →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qala Saints or draw
43%
Qala Saints or St. Andrews
76%
Draw or St. Andrews
81%

Winning margin

Qala Saints wins by 2+
6%
St. Andrews wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Qala Saints 1+ goals
56%
Qala Saints 2+ goals
20%
Qala Saints 3+ goals
5%
St. Andrews 1+ goals
81%
St. Andrews 2+ goals
50%
St. Andrews 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Qala Saints (draw refunded)
24%
St. Andrews (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qala Saints at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

St. Andrews away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qala Saints attack 0.67 + St. Andrews defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

St. Andrews attack 1.67 + Qala Saints defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Qala Saints scores more
19%
level
24%
St. Andrews scores more
57%

St. Andrews at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "St. Andrews will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qala Saints vs St. Andrews

Qala Saints beat St. Andrews 2-0 in FA Trophy on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Gozo Stadium in Gozo.