Qala Saints 0–2 Mgarr United: Result & Stats

Qala Saints

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mgarr United

1/4/2026

FA Trophy · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qala Saints26%

×Draw25%

Mgarr United49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qala SaintsExpected goals in this matchMgarr United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.58

Qala Saints

1.08

Mgarr United

1.58

Mgarr United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Qala Saints

0.67

Mgarr United

1.50

allows per match

Qala Saints

1.67

Mgarr United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qala Saints+0.00on par

Mgarr United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qala Saints ↓

Mgarr United →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qala Saints or draw

51%

Qala Saints or Mgarr United

75%

Draw or Mgarr United

74%

Winning margin

Qala Saints wins by 2+

10%

Mgarr United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Qala Saints 1+ goals

66%

Qala Saints 2+ goals

29%

Qala Saints 3+ goals

10%

Mgarr United 1+ goals

79%

Mgarr United 2+ goals

47%

Mgarr United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Qala Saints (draw refunded)

35%

Mgarr United (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Qala Saints at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Mgarr United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Qala Saints attack 0.67 + Mgarr United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mgarr United attack 1.50 + Qala Saints defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qala Saints scores more

26%

level

25%

Mgarr United scores more

49%

Mgarr United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mgarr United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff