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Qabala vs Şamaxı FK — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qabala
Qabala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
4/3/2022Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 21Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Qabala42%
×Draw27%
Şamaxı FK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qabala
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.13

Qabala creates 20% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Qabala
1.16
Şamaxı FK
0.94

allows per match

Qabala
1.32
Şamaxı FK
1.57

finishing

Qabala+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qabala or draw
69%
Qabala or Şamaxı FK
73%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
58%

Winning margin

Qabala wins by 2+
20%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qabala 1+ goals
74%
Qabala 2+ goals
39%
Qabala 3+ goals
16%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
68%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
31%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Qabala (draw refunded)
57%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala attack 1.16 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Şamaxı FK attack 0.94 + Qabala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qabala scores more
42%
level
27%
Şamaxı FK scores more
31%

Qabala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qabala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qabala 1–1 Şamaxı FK

Qabala and Şamaxı FK drew 1-1 in Premyer Liqa on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Qəbələ.