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Qabala vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qabala
Qabala
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Qarabag
Qarabag
2/28/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 23Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Qabala20%
×Draw24%
Qarabag56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qabala
0.93
Qarabag
1.73

Qarabag creates 86% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Qabala
1.16
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Qabala
1.32
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Qabala+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Qabala or draw
44%
Qabala or Qarabag
76%
Draw or Qarabag
80%

Winning margin

Qabala wins by 2+
7%
Qarabag wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Qabala 1+ goals
61%
Qabala 2+ goals
24%
Qabala 3+ goals
7%
Qarabag 1+ goals
82%
Qarabag 2+ goals
52%
Qarabag 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Qabala (draw refunded)
26%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala attack 1.16 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Qabala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Qabala scores more
20%
level
24%
Qarabag scores more
56%

Qarabag at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qabala 0–4 Qarabag

Qarabag beat Qabala 4-0 in Premyer Liqa on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Qəbələ.