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Qabala vs Neftchi Baku — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qabala
Qabala
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
10/26/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Qabala31%
×Draw27%
Neftchi Baku42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qabala
1.13
Neftchi Baku
1.35

Neftchi Baku creates 19% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

creates per match

Qabala
1.16
Neftchi Baku
1.38

allows per match

Qabala
1.32
Neftchi Baku
1.09

finishing

Qabala+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qabala or draw
58%
Qabala or Neftchi Baku
73%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
69%

Winning margin

Qabala wins by 2+
13%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qabala 1+ goals
68%
Qabala 2+ goals
31%
Qabala 3+ goals
11%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
74%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
39%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qabala (draw refunded)
43%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala attack 1.16 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Neftchi Baku attack 1.38 + Qabala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qabala scores more
31%
level
27%
Neftchi Baku scores more
42%

Neftchi Baku at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qabala 0–2 Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku beat Qabala 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on October 26, 2025.