Qabala U19 1–1 Puskás Akadémia U19: Result & Stats

Qabala U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Puskás Akadémia U19

S. Shahniyarov 8'

Á. Umathum 36' (pen)

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundŞəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Qabala U1916%

×Draw23%

Puskás Akadémia U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qabala U19Expected goals in this matchPuskás Akadémia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.74

Qabala U19

0.78

Puskás Akadémia U19

1.74

Puskás Akadémia U19 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.57

creates per match

1.33

2.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Qabala U19

0.57

Puskás Akadémia U19

1.33

allows per match

Qabala U19

2.14

Puskás Akadémia U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qabala U19+0.00on par

Puskás Akadémia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala U19 ↓

Puskás Akadémia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qabala U19 or draw

40%

Qabala U19 or Puskás Akadémia U19

77%

Draw or Puskás Akadémia U19

84%

Winning margin

Qabala U19 wins by 2+

5%

Puskás Akadémia U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Qabala U19 1+ goals

54%

Qabala U19 2+ goals

18%

Qabala U19 3+ goals

4%

Puskás Akadémia U19 1+ goals

82%

Puskás Akadémia U19 2+ goals

52%

Puskás Akadémia U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Qabala U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Puskás Akadémia U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Puskás Akadémia U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala U19 attack 0.57 + Puskás Akadémia U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Puskás Akadémia U19 attack 1.33 + Qabala U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Qabala U19 scores more

16%

level

23%

Puskás Akadémia U19 scores more

60%

Puskás Akadémia U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Puskás Akadémia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

S. Shahniyarov

31'

O. Pyshchur

36'

Á. UmathumPenalty

42'

A. Umathum

44'

S. Dusinszki

44'

I. Ramazanov

46'

D. Dymytriiev← S. Dusinszki

53'

K. Mammadli

62'

O. Yablonskyi← R. Szabari

64'

İ. Budagov← K. Mammadli

71'

R. Badalzade← E. Ahmadov

73'

A. Markgraf

78'

M. Osadchyi

83'

E. Mustafayev← K. Bakhishov

83'

G. Ramazanov← O. Tahmazli

83'

R. Asadov← R. Gafarov

89'

B. Makara

90+2'

G. Ramazanov

90+6'

S. Agalarov

90'

R. Orján← B. Vekony

Qabala

Puskás

1

Gazdag

3

⚽

9

4

20

18

21

▼

Dusinszki

23

Osadchyi

13

▼

Szabari

10

▼

17

94

3

4

13

▼

Gafarov

18

⚽

Shahniyar

10

▼

Tahmazli

6

Ahmadov

17

▼

Ahmadov

7

▼

Mammadli

11

▼

Bakhishov

9

Ağalarov

Manager: F. Khalilov

64'▲İ. Budagov←▼K. Mammadli

71'▲R. Badalzade←▼E. Ahmadov

83'▲E. Mustafayev←▼K. Bakhishov

83'▲G. Ramazanov←▼O. Tahmazli

83'▲R. Asadov←▼R. Gafarov

Qabala U19 substitutes

14Budagov19Badalzade2Mustafayev5Ramazanov8Asadov15Huseynov16Muradov

Manager: I. Körtvélyesi

46'▲D. Dymytriiev←▼S. Dusinszki

62'▲O. Yablonskyi←▼R. Szabari

90'▲R. Orján←▼B. Vekony

Puskás Akadémia U19 substitutes

16Dymytriiev11Yablonskyi5Orján6Juričić12Perczel14Somfalvi19Koch