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Pyunik Yerevan vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
3/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan64%
×Draw20%
West Armenia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
2.08
West Armenia
0.93

Pyunik Yerevan creates 124% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 31 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.96
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
84%
Pyunik Yerevan or West Armenia
80%
Draw or West Armenia
36%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
40%
West Armenia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
87%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
61%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
34%
West Armenia 1+ goals
61%
West Armenia 2+ goals
24%
West Armenia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
80%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.08

West Armenia attack 0.90 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
64%
level
20%
West Armenia scores more
16%

Pyunik Yerevan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik Yerevan vs West Armenia

Pyunik Yerevan beat West Armenia 2-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.