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Pyunik Yerevan vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Y. Otubanjo 60'
Juninho 43'
10/6/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan59%
×Draw24%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78

Pyunik Yerevan creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.83
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
83%
Pyunik Yerevan or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
76%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
41%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
32%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
81%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
50%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
23%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
54%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
18%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
77%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.83 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 0.88 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
59%
level
24%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
17%

Pyunik Yerevan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
H. HarutyunyanPyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan · M
8.0

Match Events

43'
Juninho↳ A. González
60'
Y. Otubanjo↳ H. Harutyunyan
64'
R. Karasyuk← H. Harutyunyan
64'
D. Diop← L. Juričić
67'
Nicolas Gorobsov
73'
P. Mamić← S. Mikoliūnas
74'
M. Kovalenko← A. González
74'
F. Kyeremeh← M. Milićković
77'
Aleksandar Miljković
81'
Eugeniu Cociuc
86'
G. Petrosyan← Y. Otubanjo
86'
S. Spirovski← E. Cociuc

Possession

46%Pyunik

Shots

14Pyunik

Pass accuracy

49%Pyunik

Statistics

PyunikFK
Overview
46%Possession54%
14Total Shots8
4Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots8
6On Target1
7Off Target4
1Blocked3
9Inside Box3
5Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
389Total Passes459
312Accurate Passes381
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Pyunik Yerevan vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Pyunik Yerevan beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 6, 2022.

Goals: Juninho (43'), Y. Otubanjo (60').

FK Zalgiris Vilnius controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.