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Pyunik Yerevan vs F91 Dudelange — UEFA Champions League 2018

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
7/19/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundVazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan16%
×Draw32%
F91 Dudelange51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik Yerevan
0.50
F91 Dudelange
1.13

F91 Dudelange creates 126% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan
0.00
F91 Dudelange
1.25

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan
1.00
F91 Dudelange
1.00

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–122%
0–213%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw
49%
Pyunik Yerevan or F91 Dudelange
68%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
84%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
3%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
39%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
9%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
1%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
68%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
31%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
24%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 0.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

F91 Dudelange attack 1.25 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more
16%
level
32%
F91 Dudelange scores more
51%

F91 Dudelange at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Pyunik Yerevan 0–1 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.