Pyunik Yerevan 1–0 Ararat-Armenia: Result & Stats

Pyunik Yerevan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ararat-Armenia

11/25/2025

Premier League · Round 3Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Pyunik Yerevan36%

×Draw26%

Ararat-Armenia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyunik YerevanExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

Pyunik Yerevan

1.29

Ararat-Armenia

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 107 away

1.77

creates per match

1.67

0.96

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Pyunik Yerevan

1.77

Ararat-Armenia

1.67

allows per match

Pyunik Yerevan

0.96

Ararat-Armenia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik Yerevan ↓

Ararat-Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pyunik Yerevan or draw

63%

Pyunik Yerevan or Ararat-Armenia

74%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia

64%

Winning margin

Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+

16%

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals

72%

Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals

37%

Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals

14%

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

73%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

38%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)

49%

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik Yerevan at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.96 · 104 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.77 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pyunik Yerevan scores more

36%

level

26%

Ararat-Armenia scores more

37%

Ararat-Armenia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff