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Pyunik II vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
CANC
06:00
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
7/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pyunik II60%
×Draw18%
Torpedo Yerevan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
2.66
Torpedo Yerevan
1.56

Pyunik II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
78%
Pyunik II or Torpedo Yerevan
82%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
40%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
40%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
93%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
74%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
49%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
79%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
46%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
74%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.66

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pyunik II scores more
60%
level
18%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
22%

Pyunik II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pyunik II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pyunik II host Torpedo Yerevan

July 18, 2020: Pyunik II take on Torpedo Yerevan in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pyunik II host Torpedo Yerevan at Pyunik Training Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.