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Pyunik II vs Mika — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mika
Mika
12/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pyunik II56%
×Draw20%
Mika24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
2.27
Mika
1.42

Pyunik II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Mika
1.02

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Mika
2.71

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
Mika+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Mika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
76%
Pyunik II or Mika
80%
Draw or Mika
44%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
35%
Mika wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
90%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
66%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
39%
Mika 1+ goals
76%
Mika 2+ goals
41%
Mika 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
70%
Mika (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Mika away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Mika defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.27

Mika attack 1.02 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pyunik II scores more
56%
level
20%
Mika scores more
24%

Pyunik II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pyunik II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pyunik II 5–0 Mika

Pyunik II beat Mika 5-0 in First League on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.