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Pyunik II vs Lernayin Artsakh II — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
5 – 1
Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
11/25/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyunik II61%
×Draw19%
Lernayin Artsakh II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
2.52
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.41

Pyunik II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.22

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
80%
Pyunik II or Lernayin Artsakh II
81%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II
39%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
40%
Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
92%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
71%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
45%
Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
76%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
41%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
75%
Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.52

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pyunik II scores more
61%
level
19%
Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
20%

Pyunik II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pyunik II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pyunik II 5–1 Lernayin Artsakh II

Pyunik II beat Lernayin Artsakh II 5-1 in First League on November 25, 2022.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.