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Pyunik II vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
BKMA II
BKMA II
11/27/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Pyunik II30%
×Draw22%
BKMA II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
1.53
BKMA II
2.01

BKMA II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 71 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
51%
Pyunik II or BKMA II
78%
Draw or BKMA II
70%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
14%
BKMA II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
78%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
45%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
20%
BKMA II 1+ goals
87%
BKMA II 2+ goals
59%
BKMA II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
38%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.53

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pyunik II scores more
30%
level
22%
BKMA II scores more
49%

BKMA II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pyunik II 1–5 BKMA II

BKMA II beat Pyunik II 5-1 in First League on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.