BKMA II 4–1 Pyunik II: Result & Stats

BKMA II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pyunik II

8/27/2024

First League · Round 3Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

BKMA II62%

×Draw19%

Pyunik II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BKMA IIExpected goals in this matchPyunik II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.29

BKMA II

2.43

Pyunik II

1.29

BKMA II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 98 away

2.70

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

BKMA II

2.70

Pyunik II

1.46

allows per match

BKMA II

1.13

Pyunik II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BKMA II+0.00on par

Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA II ↓

Pyunik II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

BKMA II or draw

81%

BKMA II or Pyunik II

81%

Draw or Pyunik II

38%

Winning margin

BKMA II wins by 2+

40%

Pyunik II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BKMA II 1+ goals

91%

BKMA II 2+ goals

69%

BKMA II 3+ goals

43%

Pyunik II 1+ goals

72%

Pyunik II 2+ goals

37%

Pyunik II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

BKMA II (draw refunded)

76%

Pyunik II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA II attack 2.70 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.43

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + BKMA II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

BKMA II scores more

62%

level

19%

Pyunik II scores more

19%

BKMA II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff