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Pyunik II vs Aragats — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
2 – 2
Aragats
Aragats
11/6/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pyunik II47%
×Draw20%
Aragats33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
2.34
Aragats
1.94

Pyunik II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
67%
Pyunik II or Aragats
80%
Draw or Aragats
53%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
28%
Aragats wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
90%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
67%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
41%
Aragats 1+ goals
86%
Aragats 2+ goals
58%
Aragats 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
59%
Aragats (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.34

Aragats attack 2.07 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pyunik II scores more
47%
level
20%
Aragats scores more
33%

Pyunik II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pyunik II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik II vs Aragats

Pyunik II and Aragats drew 2-2 in First League on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.