Pyramids FC 3–0 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rivers United

11/22/2025

CAF Champions League · Round 130 June Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyramids FC78%

×Draw15%

Rivers United6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.47

Pyramids FC

2.28

Rivers United

0.47

Pyramids FC creates 385% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

2.89

creates per match

0.11

0.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pyramids FC

2.89

Rivers United

0.11

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.83

Rivers United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

94%

Pyramids FC or Rivers United

85%

Draw or Rivers United

22%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

54%

Rivers United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

90%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

66%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

39%

Rivers United 1+ goals

37%

Rivers United 2+ goals

8%

Rivers United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

93%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + Rivers United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.28

Rivers United attack 0.11 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

78%

level

15%

Rivers United scores more

6%

Pyramids FC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff