Pyramids FC 3–2 Orlando Pirates: Result & Stats

Pyramids FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orlando Pirates

F. Mayele 84', 45+1'

Ramadan Sobhi 57'

M. Nkota 52'

R. Mofokeng 41'

4/25/2025

CAF Champions League · Semi-finals30 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pyramids FC58%

×Draw22%

Orlando Pirates19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.00

Pyramids FC

1.91

Orlando Pirates

1.00

Pyramids FC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.89

creates per match

1.17

0.83

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Pyramids FC

2.89

Orlando Pirates

1.17

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.83

Orlando Pirates

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Orlando Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

81%

Pyramids FC or Orlando Pirates

78%

Draw or Orlando Pirates

42%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

34%

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

85%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

57%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

30%

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals

63%

Orlando Pirates 2+ goals

26%

Orlando Pirates 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

75%

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.91

Orlando Pirates attack 1.17 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

58%

level

22%

Orlando Pirates scores more

19%

Pyramids FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Mayele

Pyramids FC · F

8.7

Match Events

41'

R. Mofokeng↳ T. Xoki

45'

Deano van Rooyen

45+1'

F. Mayele↳ Mostafa Fathi

52'

M. Nkota

56'

Ramadan Sobhi← Karim Hafez

56'

S. Ougola← Mohanad Lasheen

56'

B. Shandu← D. van Rooyen

57'

Ramadan Sobhi↳ M. Chibi

60'

Thalente Mbatha

77'

K. Dlamini← T. Mbatha

77'

P. Maswanganyi← M. Nkota

82'

Marwan Hamdy← B. Touré

84'

F. Mayele

88'

T. Mabasa← E. Makgopa

88'

B. Radiopane← T. Xoki

90+2'

Ahmed El-Shenawy

90+2'

Ahmed Tawfik← F. Mayele

90+2'

Ali Gabr← Mahmoud Marei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PyramidsOrlando

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots13

4Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots13

8On Target4

5Off Target3

2Blocked6

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

461Total Passes309

349Accurate Passes188

76%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3