Pyramids FC 2–2 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Pyramids FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

12/14/2023

Premier League · Round 930 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pyramids FC67%

×Draw20%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pyramids FCExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.71

Pyramids FC

1.98

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.71

Pyramids FC creates 179% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

0.65

0.77

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Pyramids FC

1.83

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

Pyramids FC

0.77

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw

88%

Pyramids FC or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

80%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

33%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

42%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

86%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

59%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

31%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

51%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

16%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

84%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 126 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 1.83 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Pyramids FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pyramids FC scores more

67%

level

20%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

12%

Pyramids FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff