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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Yangju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
6/5/2021K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 12Pyeongtaek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen42%
×Draw27%
Yangju Citizen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.35
Yangju Citizen
1.14

Pyeongtaek Citizen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 54 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.00
Yangju Citizen
0.67

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.60
Yangju Citizen
1.70

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
68%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Yangju Citizen
73%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
58%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
19%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
74%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
39%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
15%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
68%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
32%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
57%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.00 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
42%
level
27%
Yangju Citizen scores more
32%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Pyeongtaek Citizen 0–0 Yangju Citizen

Pyeongtaek Citizen and Yangju Citizen drew 0-0 in K3 League on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Pyeongtaek Stadium in Pyeongtaek.