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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Sejong SA — K4 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Preview
06:00
Sejong SA
Sejong SA
10/4/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 23
49%
Sejong SA
model favours
28%23%49%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen28%
×Draw23%
Sejong SA49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.38
Sejong SA
1.87

Sejong SA creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90
Sejong SA
1.14

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
2.60
Sejong SA
1.86

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Sejong SA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Sejong SA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
51%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Sejong SA
77%
Draw or Sejong SA
72%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
12%
Sejong SA wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
75%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
40%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
16%
Sejong SA 1+ goals
85%
Sejong SA 2+ goals
56%
Sejong SA 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
37%
Sejong SA (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Sejong SA away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.90 + Sejong SA defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sejong SA attack 1.14 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
28%
level
23%
Sejong SA scores more
49%

Sejong SA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sejong SA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
LLDLL
SA
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pyeongtaek Citizen face Sejong SA (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Pyeongtaek Citizen hosting Sejong SA. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.