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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jincheon — K4 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
1 – 0
Jincheon
Jincheon
5/30/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen16%
×Draw19%
Jincheon65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.07
Jincheon
2.30

Jincheon creates 115% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90
Jincheon
2.00

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
2.60
Jincheon
1.25

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Jincheon+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Jincheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
35%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Jincheon
81%
Draw or Jincheon
84%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
6%
Jincheon wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
66%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
29%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
9%
Jincheon 1+ goals
90%
Jincheon 2+ goals
67%
Jincheon 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
20%
Jincheon (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Jincheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.90 + Jincheon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Jincheon attack 2.00 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
16%
level
19%
Jincheon scores more
65%

Jincheon at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Pyeongtaek Citizen 1–0 Jincheon

Pyeongtaek Citizen beat Jincheon 1-0 in K4 League on May 30, 2026.