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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jeonju — K3 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jeonju
Jeonju
9/20/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 2Pyeongtaek Ichon Leports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen37%
×Draw27%
Jeonju36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.23
Jeonju
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.00
Jeonju
0.82

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.60
Jeonju
1.45

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Jeonju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
64%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Jeonju
73%
Draw or Jeonju
63%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
16%
Jeonju wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
35%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
13%
Jeonju 1+ goals
70%
Jeonju 2+ goals
34%
Jeonju 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
51%
Jeonju (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

Jeonju away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.00 + Jeonju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jeonju attack 0.82 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
37%
level
27%
Jeonju scores more
36%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Jeonju

Pyeongtaek Citizen and Jeonju drew 1-1 in K3 League on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Pyeongtaek Ichon Leports Stadium in Pyeongtaek.