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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
2 – 7
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
4/25/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen19%
×Draw20%
Geumsan Insam61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17
Geumsan Insam
2.25

Geumsan Insam creates 92% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
2.60
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
39%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Geumsan Insam
80%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
81%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
7%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
11%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
89%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
65%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
24%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.90 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
19%
level
20%
Geumsan Insam scores more
61%

Geumsan Insam at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Pyeongtaek Citizen 2–7 Geumsan Insam

Geumsan Insam beat Pyeongtaek Citizen 7-2 in K4 League on April 25, 2026.