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Pyeongtaek Citizen vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
FT
2 – 3
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
5/17/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen17%
×Draw20%
Geoje Citizen63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.01
Geoje Citizen
2.12

Geoje Citizen creates 110% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Pyeongtaek Citizen
2.60
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongtaek Citizen ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pyeongtaek Citizen or draw
37%
Pyeongtaek Citizen or Geoje Citizen
80%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
83%

Winning margin

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
6%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
64%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
27%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
8%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
88%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
62%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
22%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongtaek Citizen at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 0.90 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
17%
level
20%
Geoje Citizen scores more
63%

Geoje Citizen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Pyeongtaek Citizen 2–3 Geoje Citizen

Geoje Citizen beat Pyeongtaek Citizen 3-2 in K4 League on May 17, 2026.