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Pyeongchang United vs Seosan Pioneer — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
FT
0 – 2
Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
5/10/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongchang United49%
×Draw23%
Seosan Pioneer28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.82
Seosan Pioneer
1.34

Pyeongchang United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Seosan Pioneer
1.30

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Seosan Pioneer
2.40

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Seosan Pioneer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
72%
Pyeongchang United or Seosan Pioneer
77%
Draw or Seosan Pioneer
51%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
27%
Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
84%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
54%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
27%
Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
74%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
39%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
63%
Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
49%
level
23%
Seosan Pioneer scores more
28%

Pyeongchang United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pyeongchang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyeongchang United vs Seosan Pioneer

Seosan Pioneer beat Pyeongchang United 2-0 in K4 League on May 10, 2026.