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Pyeongchang United vs Haman — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
FT
2 – 0
Haman
Haman
4/18/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongchang United39%
×Draw27%
Haman34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.29
Haman
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Haman
1.00

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Haman
1.33

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Haman+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Haman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
66%
Pyeongchang United or Haman
73%
Draw or Haman
61%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
17%
Haman wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
72%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
37%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
14%
Haman 1+ goals
70%
Haman 2+ goals
33%
Haman 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
53%
Haman (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Haman away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Haman defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Haman attack 1.00 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
39%
level
27%
Haman scores more
34%

Pyeongchang United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pyeongchang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Pyeongchang United 2–0 Haman

Pyeongchang United beat Haman 2-0 in K4 League on April 18, 2026.