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Pyeongchang United vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
FT
4 – 2
Gijang United
Gijang United
5/30/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongchang United49%
×Draw25%
Gijang United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.63
Gijang United
1.14

Pyeongchang United creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Gijang United
0.89

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Gijang United
2.00

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Gijang United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Gijang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
73%
Pyeongchang United or Gijang United
75%
Draw or Gijang United
51%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
26%
Gijang United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
80%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
48%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
22%
Gijang United 1+ goals
68%
Gijang United 2+ goals
32%
Gijang United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
65%
Gijang United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gijang United attack 0.89 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
49%
level
25%
Gijang United scores more
27%

Pyeongchang United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pyeongchang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyeongchang United vs Gijang United

Pyeongchang United beat Gijang United 4-2 in K4 League on May 30, 2026.