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Pyeongchang United vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
7/11/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pyeongchang United30%
×Draw26%
Geoje Citizen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyeongchang United
1.19
Geoje Citizen
1.50

Geoje Citizen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pyeongchang United
1.25
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Pyeongchang United
1.38
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Pyeongchang United+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyeongchang United ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pyeongchang United or draw
56%
Pyeongchang United or Geoje Citizen
74%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
70%

Winning margin

Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
12%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
70%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
33%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
12%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
78%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
44%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
40%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyeongchang United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pyeongchang United scores more
30%
level
26%
Geoje Citizen scores more
44%

Geoje Citizen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyeongchang United vs Geoje Citizen

Geoje Citizen beat Pyeongchang United 3-1 in K4 League on July 11, 2026.