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PWD Bamenda vs Victoria United — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Victoria United
Victoria United
M. Adimana 60' (pen)
J. Tchana Tchana 65'
R. Ebene Tetego 23', 11'
12/29/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

PWD Bamenda47%
×Draw26%
Victoria United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.48
Victoria United
1.04

PWD Bamenda creates 42% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 40 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Victoria United
1.20

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Victoria United
1.70

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Victoria United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
73%
PWD Bamenda or Victoria United
74%
Draw or Victoria United
53%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
24%
Victoria United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
77%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
43%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
19%
Victoria United 1+ goals
65%
Victoria United 2+ goals
28%
Victoria United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
64%
Victoria United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Victoria United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Victoria United attack 1.20 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
47%
level
26%
Victoria United scores more
27%

PWD Bamenda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
R. Ebene Tetego
23'
R. Ebene Tetego
60'
M. AdimanaPenalty
65'
J. Tchana Tchana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: PWD Bamenda 1–3 Victoria United

Victoria United beat PWD Bamenda 3-1 in Elite One on December 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Ebene Tetego (11', 23'), M. Adimana (60' pen), J. Tchana Tchana (65').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mbouda in Mbouda.