PWD Bamenda 3–4 UMS de Loum: Result & Stats

PWD Bamenda

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

UMS de Loum

6/5/2022

Elite One · Round 24Stade Municipal Fotso Victor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

PWD Bamenda39%

×Draw31%

UMS de Loum30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PWD BamendaExpected goals in this matchUMS de Loum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.91

PWD Bamenda

1.07

UMS de Loum

0.91

PWD Bamenda creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

PWD Bamenda

1.26

UMS de Loum

0.92

allows per match

PWD Bamenda

0.89

UMS de Loum

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

UMS de Loum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw

70%

PWD Bamenda or UMS de Loum

69%

Draw or UMS de Loum

61%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

16%

UMS de Loum wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

66%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

29%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

9%

UMS de Loum 1+ goals

60%

UMS de Loum 2+ goals

23%

UMS de Loum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

56%

UMS de Loum (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more

39%

level

31%

UMS de Loum scores more

30%

PWD Bamenda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff