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PWD Bamenda vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
1 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
11/17/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 7Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

PWD Bamenda47%
×Draw30%
Tonnerre23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.23
Tonnerre
0.77

PWD Bamenda creates 60% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 36 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
77%
PWD Bamenda or Tonnerre
70%
Draw or Tonnerre
53%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
21%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
71%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
35%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
13%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
54%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
18%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
67%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
47%
level
30%
Tonnerre scores more
23%

PWD Bamenda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: PWD Bamenda 1–1 Tonnerre

PWD Bamenda and Tonnerre drew 1-1 in Elite One on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda in Bamenda.