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PWD Bamenda vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
2 – 2
Panthère
Panthère
4/16/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

PWD Bamenda43%
×Draw30%
Panthère27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.16
Panthère
0.86

PWD Bamenda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 64 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Panthère
1.05

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
73%
PWD Bamenda or Panthère
70%
Draw or Panthère
57%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
18%
Panthère wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
69%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
32%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
11%
Panthère 1+ goals
58%
Panthère 2+ goals
21%
Panthère 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
61%
Panthère (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Panthère attack 0.84 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
43%
level
30%
Panthère scores more
27%

PWD Bamenda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PWD Bamenda vs Panthère

PWD Bamenda and Panthère drew 2-2 in Elite One on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.