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PWD Bamenda vs Gazelle — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gazelle
Gazelle
2/5/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 3Stade Municipal de Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

PWD Bamenda39%
×Draw29%
Gazelle32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.19
Gazelle
1.05

PWD Bamenda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Gazelle
1.21

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Gazelle
1.12

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Gazelle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
68%
PWD Bamenda or Gazelle
71%
Draw or Gazelle
61%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
17%
Gazelle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
70%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
33%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
12%
Gazelle 1+ goals
65%
Gazelle 2+ goals
28%
Gazelle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
55%
Gazelle (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gazelle attack 1.21 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
39%
level
29%
Gazelle scores more
32%

PWD Bamenda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PWD Bamenda vs Gazelle

PWD Bamenda beat Gazelle 1-0 in Elite One on February 5, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bamenda in Bamenda.