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PWD Bamenda vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
T. Mbengue 15'
A. Mfoumou 45', 21'
2/23/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

PWD Bamenda44%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.32
Fortuna Mfou
0.99

PWD Bamenda creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
72%
PWD Bamenda or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
56%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
73%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
38%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
15%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
63%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
26%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
61%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
44%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
28%

PWD Bamenda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
T. Mbengue
21'
A. Mfoumou
45'
A. Mfoumou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PWD Bamenda vs Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat PWD Bamenda 2-1 in Elite One on February 23, 2025.

Goals: T. Mbengue (15'), A. Mfoumou (21', 45').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.