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PWD Bamenda vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
A. Nsangou 90+1'
N. Blaise 47', 33'
3/15/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Municipal Fotso Victor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PWD Bamenda46%
×Draw31%
Fauve Azur Elite23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.17
Fauve Azur Elite
0.74

PWD Bamenda creates 58% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
77%
PWD Bamenda or Fauve Azur Elite
69%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
54%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
20%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
69%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
33%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
11%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
52%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
17%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
66%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
46%
level
31%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
23%

PWD Bamenda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
N. Blaise
47'
N. Blaise
90+1'
A. Nsangou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: PWD Bamenda 3–0 Fauve Azur Elite

PWD Bamenda beat Fauve Azur Elite 3-0 in Elite One on March 15, 2025.

Goals: N. Blaise (33', 47'), A. Nsangou (90+1').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Fotso Victor in Bandjoun.