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PWD Bamenda vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
0 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
4/10/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 6Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

PWD Bamenda46%
×Draw29%
Avion Academy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.25
Avion Academy
0.85

PWD Bamenda creates 47% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 67 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
75%
PWD Bamenda or Avion Academy
71%
Draw or Avion Academy
54%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
21%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
71%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
36%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
13%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
57%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
21%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
64%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
46%
level
29%
Avion Academy scores more
25%

PWD Bamenda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: PWD Bamenda 0–0 Avion Academy

PWD Bamenda and Avion Academy drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda in Bamenda.