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Avion Academy vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
4/5/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 3Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Avion Academy38%
×Draw30%
PWD Bamenda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.12
PWD Bamenda
1.02

Avion Academy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 99 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
67%
Avion Academy or PWD Bamenda
70%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
62%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
15%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
67%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
31%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
10%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
64%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
27%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
54%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avion Academy scores more
38%
level
30%
PWD Bamenda scores more
33%

Avion Academy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avion Academy vs PWD Bamenda

Avion Academy and PWD Bamenda drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.