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PWD Bamenda vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
3/22/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 11Bamenda Proximity Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

PWD Bamenda47%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PWD Bamenda
1.34
Aigle Royal
0.88

PWD Bamenda creates 52% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 38 away

creates per match

PWD Bamenda
1.26
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

PWD Bamenda
0.89
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PWD Bamenda ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

PWD Bamenda or draw
75%
PWD Bamenda or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
53%

Winning margin

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
22%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
74%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
39%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
15%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
59%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
22%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
66%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PWD Bamenda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PWD Bamenda attack 1.26 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + PWD Bamenda defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PWD Bamenda scores more
47%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
25%

PWD Bamenda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PWD Bamenda vs Aigle Royal

PWD Bamenda beat Aigle Royal 2-1 in Elite One on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Bamenda Proximity Stadium in Bamenda.