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PVV vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

PVV
PVV
FT
0 – 4
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
4/12/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 7Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

PVV28%
×Draw21%
Robin Hood50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PVV
1.49
Robin Hood
2.05

Robin Hood creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 61 away

creates per match

PVV
2.09
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

PVV
1.05
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

PVV+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PVV ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PVV or draw
50%
PVV or Robin Hood
79%
Draw or Robin Hood
72%

Winning margin

PVV wins by 2+
13%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

PVV 1+ goals
77%
PVV 2+ goals
44%
PVV 3+ goals
19%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
87%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
61%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

PVV (draw refunded)
36%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PVV at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PVV attack 2.09 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.49

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + PVV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PVV scores more
28%
level
21%
Robin Hood scores more
50%

Robin Hood at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PVV 0 – 4 Robin Hood

Robin Hood beat PVV 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.