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Putnok VSE vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
11/5/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Putnok VSE61%
×Draw20%
Gyöngyös19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Putnok VSE
2.19
Gyöngyös
1.15

Putnok VSE creates 90% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

creates per match

Putnok VSE
1.99
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Putnok VSE
1.16
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw
81%
Putnok VSE or Gyöngyös
80%
Draw or Gyöngyös
39%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+
38%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals
89%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
64%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
37%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
68%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
32%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
76%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Putnok VSE scores more
61%
level
20%
Gyöngyös scores more
19%

Putnok VSE at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Putnok VSE vs Gyöngyös

Putnok VSE beat Gyöngyös 4-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Várady Béla Sportközpont in Putnok.