Putnok VSE 2–2 Füzesgyarmati: Result & Stats

Putnok VSE

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Füzesgyarmati

2/13/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Putnok VSE52%

×Draw23%

Füzesgyarmati25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Putnok VSEExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.20

Putnok VSE

1.81

Füzesgyarmati

1.20

Putnok VSE creates 51% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 67 away

1.99

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Putnok VSE

1.99

Füzesgyarmati

1.24

allows per match

Putnok VSE

1.16

Füzesgyarmati

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw

75%

Putnok VSE or Füzesgyarmati

77%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

48%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

29%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

84%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

54%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

27%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

70%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

34%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

67%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Putnok VSE scores more

52%

level

23%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

25%

Putnok VSE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff