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Putnok VSE vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
10/20/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 12Várady Béla Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Putnok VSE49%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Putnok VSE
1.88
Debrecen II
1.39

Putnok VSE creates 35% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Putnok VSE
1.99
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Putnok VSE
1.16
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Putnok VSE+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Putnok VSE ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Putnok VSE or draw
71%
Putnok VSE or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
51%

Winning margin

Putnok VSE wins by 2+
27%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Putnok VSE 1+ goals
85%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
56%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
29%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
75%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
40%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
63%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Putnok VSE at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.16 · 110 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Putnok VSE attack 1.99 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.88

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Putnok VSE defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Putnok VSE scores more
49%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
29%

Putnok VSE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Putnok VSE 3–0 Debrecen II

Putnok VSE beat Debrecen II 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Várady Béla Sportközpont in Putnok.