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Puteolana vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Puteolana
Puteolana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
Dammacco 28'
D. Sadaj 90', 70'
12/22/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Domenico Conte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puteolana57%
×Draw22%
Terracina Calcio21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puteolana
1.89
Terracina Calcio
1.06

Puteolana creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Puteolana
1.59
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Puteolana
1.24
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Puteolana+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puteolana ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puteolana or draw
79%
Puteolana or Terracina Calcio
78%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
43%

Winning margin

Puteolana wins by 2+
33%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Puteolana 1+ goals
85%
Puteolana 2+ goals
56%
Puteolana 3+ goals
29%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
65%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
29%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puteolana (draw refunded)
73%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puteolana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puteolana attack 1.59 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Puteolana scores more
57%
level
22%
Terracina Calcio scores more
21%

Puteolana at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Puteolana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Dammacco
70'
D. Sadaj
90'
D. Sadaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puteolana vs Terracina Calcio

Terracina Calcio beat Puteolana 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 22, 2024.

Goals: Dammacco (28'), D. Sadaj (70', 90').

The match was played at Stadio Domenico Conte in Pozzuoli.