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Puteolana vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Puteolana
Puteolana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
1/5/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Domenico Conte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puteolana49%
×Draw25%
Real Monterotondo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puteolana
1.60
Real Monterotondo
1.10

Puteolana creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Puteolana
1.59
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Puteolana
1.24
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Puteolana+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puteolana ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puteolana or draw
74%
Puteolana or Real Monterotondo
75%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
51%

Winning margin

Puteolana wins by 2+
25%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puteolana 1+ goals
80%
Puteolana 2+ goals
47%
Puteolana 3+ goals
22%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
67%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
30%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Puteolana (draw refunded)
65%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puteolana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puteolana attack 1.59 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Puteolana scores more
49%
level
25%
Real Monterotondo scores more
26%

Puteolana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Puteolana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puteolana vs Real Monterotondo

Puteolana beat Real Monterotondo 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Domenico Conte in Pozzuoli.