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Puteolana vs Paganese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Puteolana
Puteolana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Paganese
Paganese
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio Comunale Castrese Giarrusso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puteolana39%
×Draw26%
Paganese35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puteolana
1.37
Paganese
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Puteolana
1.59
Paganese
1.35

allows per match

Puteolana
1.24
Paganese
1.15

finishing

Puteolana+0.00on par
Paganese+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puteolana ↓

Paganese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Puteolana or draw
65%
Puteolana or Paganese
74%
Draw or Paganese
61%

Winning margin

Puteolana wins by 2+
18%
Paganese wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puteolana 1+ goals
75%
Puteolana 2+ goals
40%
Puteolana 3+ goals
16%
Paganese 1+ goals
72%
Paganese 2+ goals
37%
Paganese 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puteolana (draw refunded)
52%
Paganese (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puteolana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Paganese away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puteolana attack 1.59 + Paganese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.37

Paganese attack 1.35 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puteolana scores more
39%
level
26%
Paganese scores more
35%

Puteolana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puteolana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puteolana vs Paganese

Puteolana and Paganese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castrese Giarrusso in Quarto.