Puteolana 3–1 Atletico Uri: Result & Stats

Puteolana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico Uri

10/23/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Comunale Castrese Giarrusso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puteolana51%

×Draw25%

Atletico Uri24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PuteolanaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Uri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Puteolana

1.65

Atletico Uri

1.05

Puteolana creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

0.87

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Puteolana

1.59

Atletico Uri

0.87

allows per match

Puteolana

1.24

Atletico Uri

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puteolana+0.00on par

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puteolana ↓

Atletico Uri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puteolana or draw

76%

Puteolana or Atletico Uri

75%

Draw or Atletico Uri

49%

Winning margin

Puteolana wins by 2+

27%

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Puteolana 1+ goals

81%

Puteolana 2+ goals

49%

Puteolana 3+ goals

23%

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Puteolana (draw refunded)

68%

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puteolana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puteolana attack 1.59 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Puteolana scores more

51%

level

25%

Atletico Uri scores more

24%

Puteolana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Puteolana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff