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Puteolana vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Puteolana
Puteolana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Albalonga
Albalonga
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Domenico Conte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puteolana43%
×Draw25%
Albalonga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puteolana
1.53
Albalonga
1.27

Puteolana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Puteolana
1.59
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Puteolana
1.24
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Puteolana+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puteolana ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Puteolana or draw
68%
Puteolana or Albalonga
75%
Draw or Albalonga
57%

Winning margin

Puteolana wins by 2+
21%
Albalonga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Puteolana 1+ goals
78%
Puteolana 2+ goals
45%
Puteolana 3+ goals
20%
Albalonga 1+ goals
72%
Albalonga 2+ goals
36%
Albalonga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puteolana (draw refunded)
58%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puteolana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puteolana attack 1.59 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Puteolana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puteolana scores more
43%
level
25%
Albalonga scores more
32%

Puteolana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puteolana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puteolana vs Albalonga

Puteolana beat Albalonga 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Domenico Conte in Pozzuoli.