Puszcza Niepołomice 0–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

T. Nawotka 89'

F. Piasecki 37'

8/21/2019

I Liga · Round 5Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice44%

×Draw28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.33

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.02

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 30% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

1.11

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.19

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.93

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.11

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

71%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

72%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

56%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

20%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

74%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

38%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

15%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

64%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

60%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 99 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.19 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.93 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

44%

level

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

29%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

35'

37'

42'

54'

S. Bilenkyi← P. Mularczyk

61'

H. Tomalski← M. Sitek

68'

W. Słomka← P. Małecki

75'

José Embaló← M. Kotwica

81'

W. Zytek← M. Vovchenko

83'

J. Sinior← C. Stewart

89'

T. Nawotka

Puszcza

Zaglebie

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Tułacz

61'▲H. Tomalski←▼M. Sitek

75'▲José Embaló←▼M. Kotwica

81'▲W. Zytek←▼M. Vovchenko

Puszcza Niepołomice substitutes

TomalskiEmbalóZytek

Manager: R. Mroczkowski

54'▲S. Bilenkyi←▼P. Mularczyk

68'▲W. Słomka←▼P. Małecki

83'▲J. Sinior←▼C. Stewart

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

BilenkyiSłomkaSinior