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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
11/12/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 17Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice42%
×Draw28%
Stomil Olsztyn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.27
Stomil Olsztyn
1.01

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
71%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Stomil Olsztyn
72%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
58%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
19%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
72%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
36%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
14%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
64%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
27%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
59%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
42%
level
28%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
29%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Puszcza Niepołomice 0–2 Stomil Olsztyn

Stomil Olsztyn beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 in I Liga on November 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.